Do you guys believe in cyles? Examples of cycles include the 10 years bear market cycles, Kondratieff 50–60 year cycles of boom and bust. How about a 101 years Global Pandemic cycles? I think I just discover a new cycles, a sad and deadly cycle, the 101 years Global Pandemic cycles.
A older history of global pandemic is difficult to find due to the lack of medical record. People tend to record in detail about all the various battles that happened during the course of history than deadly or infectious disease. Detail record about how is happen and what lead to the outbreak is not available. But lets not look too far in history and look at the most recent one.
In 1817-1824, the first cholera pandemic began near the city of Calcutta and spread throughout Southeast Asia to the Middle East, eastern Africa and the Mediterranean coast. While cholera had spread across India many times previously, this outbreak went further; it reached as far as China and the Mediterranean Sea before subsiding. Hundreds of thousands of people died as a result of this pandemic, including many British soldiers, which attracted European attention. This was the first of several cholera pandemics to sweep through Asia and Europe during the 19th and 20th centuries. This first pandemic spread over an unprecedented range of territory, affecting almost every country in Asia. [excerpt from Wikipedia]
After 101 years, in 1918 the Spanish flu (known as the 1918 flu pandemic) a deadly influenza pandemic started. Lasting from January 1918 to December 1920, it infected 500 million people – about a quarter of the world's population at the time. The death toll is estimated to have been anywhere from 17 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history. [excerpt from Wikipedia]
Again after 101 years, in 2019, the Covid-19 , a highly infectious disease outbreak started in Wuhan, China. From there it spread to the rest of the world. Until now, the world is still struggling to contain the virus from spreading. With the recent Covid-19 pandemic situation that is becoming serious with 1.2 millions confirmed cases as of time of writing this article, there are a lots of news and prediction about the end of the world. Religion people going mad and coming up with lots of theory and prediction. Well, as you can see, it is not. It is just going through another cycle - Global Pandemic Cycle as I called it. The world will survive the crisis just like any other previous crisis.
The similarity of the ending of the 1817 cholera pandemic and Spanish flu is also something to ponder as it is mysterious. [Excerpt from Wikipedia below]
For cholera: In 1824, transmission of the disease ended. Some researchers believe that may have been due to the cold winter of 1823–1824, which would have killed the bacteria in the water supplies.
For Spanish flu: After the lethal second wave struck in late 1918, new cases dropped abruptly –
almost to nothing after the peak in the second wave. One explanation for the rapid decline in the lethality of the disease is that doctors became more effective in prevention and treatment of the pneumonia that developed after the victims had contracted the virus.Another theory holds that the 1918 virus mutated extremely rapidly to a less lethal strain. This is a common occurrence with influenza viruses: there is a tendency for pathogenic viruses to become less lethal with time, as the hosts of more dangerous strains tend to die out.
If you notice, both the ending of the pandemic is mysterious.
For cholera: In 1824, transmission of the disease ended. Some researchers believe that may have been due to the cold winter of 1823–1824, which would have killed the bacteria in the water supplies.
For Spanish flu: After the lethal second wave struck in late 1918, new cases dropped abruptly –
almost to nothing after the peak in the second wave. One explanation for the rapid decline in the lethality of the disease is that doctors became more effective in prevention and treatment of the pneumonia that developed after the victims had contracted the virus.Another theory holds that the 1918 virus mutated extremely rapidly to a less lethal strain. This is a common occurrence with influenza viruses: there is a tendency for pathogenic viruses to become less lethal with time, as the hosts of more dangerous strains tend to die out.
If you notice, both the ending of the pandemic is mysterious.
Well, if you are aware, you should know that there is a popular snapshot of a book "End of Days" that is being circulated online about the prediction of Covid-19 by Sylvia Browne. Interestingly the prediction stated that the end of the pandemic is also mysterious. I am not sure how the ending will unfold but I really hope this pandemic will end soon.
The Global Pandemic cycles is so long apart that one person can only experience 1 of the pandemic. Even if the person with more than 101 age, he/she can only have experience of 1 pandemic because he/she is probably still an infant with no memory of the first pandemic. That is probably why no one have any real life experience of the previous pandemic. People do not aware of the severity of the pandemic. Some people even go on vacations when the government announced lockdown on the states or city. Only after the pandemic grow serious did people realize about their stupid action and mistakes. So it can be said that this is a once in a lifetime crisis.
What does that mean for Covid-19? The Cholera pandemic lasted 7 years while the Spanish Flu lasted 3 years. If history is used as a guidance, then we can definitely expect the virus to last for years - at least one year. A pessimistic view will range the pandemic duration between 3-7 years as history shows. However, a more optimistic view will consider a 7/3 year reduction factor of 2.333. If the 2.333 reduction factor is taken in consideration, then the Covid-19 will last 1.28 years or 1 years and 3-4 months. With the outbreak stated in Jan 2020, the end of the Covid-19 will be Apr-May 2021. Well, at least that is the prediction.
The effect of the last pandemic (Spanish flu) on the economy is largely unknown. There are very fews records of economy data related to the pandemic. This also because at that time of the outbreak, the world is near the end of the World War I. The lack of previous economic data means we are unable to expect what will happen next or after the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Global Pandemic cycles is so long apart that one person can only experience 1 of the pandemic. Even if the person with more than 101 age, he/she can only have experience of 1 pandemic because he/she is probably still an infant with no memory of the first pandemic. That is probably why no one have any real life experience of the previous pandemic. People do not aware of the severity of the pandemic. Some people even go on vacations when the government announced lockdown on the states or city. Only after the pandemic grow serious did people realize about their stupid action and mistakes. So it can be said that this is a once in a lifetime crisis.
What does that mean for Covid-19? The Cholera pandemic lasted 7 years while the Spanish Flu lasted 3 years. If history is used as a guidance, then we can definitely expect the virus to last for years - at least one year. A pessimistic view will range the pandemic duration between 3-7 years as history shows. However, a more optimistic view will consider a 7/3 year reduction factor of 2.333. If the 2.333 reduction factor is taken in consideration, then the Covid-19 will last 1.28 years or 1 years and 3-4 months. With the outbreak stated in Jan 2020, the end of the Covid-19 will be Apr-May 2021. Well, at least that is the prediction.
The effect of the last pandemic (Spanish flu) on the economy is largely unknown. There are very fews records of economy data related to the pandemic. This also because at that time of the outbreak, the world is near the end of the World War I. The lack of previous economic data means we are unable to expect what will happen next or after the Covid-19 pandemic.
With that being said, the next global pandemic will be in 2120. So there you have it, the 101 years Global Pandemic Cycles.
